am therefore obliged to make a very rough, but not unfair, estimate. The average age of
the children was about 3 years, and 25 years may be taken as representing the age of
maturity. Now it will be found that 74 per cent, of children in Manchester, of the age of 3,
reach the age of 25, while 86 per cent. of children do so in the Healthy Districts.
Therefore, if my rough method be accepted as approximately fair, the number of adults
who will be derived from the children of the 1000 factory families should be reckoned at
(2681 x 74/100) = 1986, and those from the 1000 agricultural at (2911 x 86/100) = 2503.
(C) The comparison we seek is between the total families produced by an equal
number of urban and rural women who had survived the age of 24. Many of these women
will not marry at all; I postpone that consideration to the next paragraph. Many of the rest
will die before they reach the age of 40, and more of them will die in the town than in the
country. It appears from data furnished by the above-mentioned tables, that if 100 women
of the age of 24 had annually been added to a population, the number of those so added,
living between the ages of 24 and 40 (an interval of seventeen years) would be 1539 under
the conditions of life in Manchester, and 1 585 under those of the healthy districts.
Therefore the small factors to be applied respectively to the two cases, on account of this
correction, are 1539/(17x100) and 1585/(17x100).
(D) I have no trustworthy data for the relative prevalence of celibacy in town and
country. All that I have learned from the census returns is, that when searching them for
the 1000 families, 131 bachelors were noted between the ages of 24 and 40, among the
factory hands, and 144 among the agricultural labourers. If these figures be accepted as
correct guides to the amount of celibacy among the women, it would follow that I must be
considered to have discussed the cases of 1131 factory, and 1144 agricultural women,
when dealing with those of 1000 mothers in either class. Consequently that the respective
corrections to be applied, are given by the factors 1000/1131 and 1000/1141, or 88.4/1000,
This difference of less than 1 per cent. is hardly worth applying, moreover I do not like
to apply it, because it seems to me erroneous and to act in the wrong direction, inasmuch
as unmarried women can obtain employment more readily in the town than in -the
country, and celibacy is therefore more likely to be common in the former than in the
(E) The possible difference in the length of an urban and