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210 galton.org
210
Inquiries into Human Faculty
—namely, 200. Then the number of such children in the A and B classes
respectively, being in the proportion of 82 to 5.4, will be 115 and 85.
We have next to determine the average lengths of the A and B
generations, which may be roughly done by basing it on the usual estimate
of an average generation, irrespectively of sex, at a third of a century, or
say of an average female generation at 31. 5 years. We will further take 20
years as being 45 years earlier than the average time of marriage, and 29
years as 4.5 years later than it, so that the length of each generation of the
A group will be 27 years, and that of the B group will be 36 years. All
these suppositions appear to be perfectly fair and reasonable, while it may
easily be shown that any other suppositions within the bounds of
probability would lead to results of the same general order.
The least common multiple of 27 and 36 is 108, at the end of which
term of years A will have been multiplied four times over by the factor
and B three times over by the factor 0.85. The results are given in the
following Table :—
The general result is that the group B gradually disappears, and the group
A more than supplants it. Hence if the races best fitted to occupy the land
are encouraged to marry early, they will breed down the others in a - very
few generations.
Number of Female Descendants who themselves become Mothers
A
Of 100 Mothers whose Marriages
and those of their Daughters all
take place at, the Age of 20 Years
B
Of 100 Mothers whose
Marriages and those of their
Daughters all take place at the
Age of 29 Years
After
Number
of Years
as below
(Ratio of increase in each
successive Generation being 1.15)
(Ratio of Decrease in each
successive Generation being
0.85)
108
175
61
216
299
38
324
535
23
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